The AGA rated the tournament on September 7. Comparing the TDList either side of that update: 78 players with games, 189 games, and 19 players at a different rank than they started.
Tournament report · Round 5 cross-tab · Tournament page · Every player's numbers (Google Sheet) · Method & code
| Player | W-L | Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aris Tian | 4-1 | 7k → 5k | +2.40936 |
| Jason Qi | 4-1 | 3k → 2k | +1.34696 |
| Luca Bove | 1-2 | 5k → 4k | +1.20543 |
| Binyi Lu | 4-1 | 14k → 13k | +1.06417 |
| Harvey Yu | 4-1 | 3k → 2k | +0.84780 |
| Andrew Perry | 4-1 | 17k → 16k | +0.52846 |
| Mateo Velikonja | 4-1 | 1k → 1d | +0.36977 |
| Andrew Huang | 4-1 | 5d → 6d | +0.33989 |
| Ryan Horner | 4-1 | 5k → 4k | +0.16871 |
| John Kerpan | 3-2 | 1d → 2d | +0.15085 |
| Micah Steinberg | 4-1 | 4k → 3k | +0.06136 |
Micah Steinberg got the most out of the least: +0.06136 was the smallest gain of any four-win player here, and it was enough because he started five hundredths of a point from the line. He is now a 3k by eight thousandths, the second-weakest of the country's 149 active* 3k players.
Forest Song moved least of anyone who played - five games, 3-2, and a change of +0.00201. That is what a correctly rated player looks like.
Eight players lost a rank. Five of them went 1-4 and one went 0-5; two dropped two ranks at once. Across everyone who lost points, the average was -0.27.
One demotion is worth naming, because it is the strangest line in the file: Jeremy Chiu went 4-1, won the tournament, and lost a stone. 8.03208 → 7.98574, a change of -0.04634 - and 0.032 was all the 8d interval he had left. He went in the third-weakest of the country's 26 active* 8d players; he comes out the strongest of the 52 active 7d.
Monotonically, yes: each additional win moves the column average up, from -1.84 at no wins to +0.65 at four. But the spread inside a column is wider than the gap between columns. Who you played matters as much as how often you won.
gained rating lost rating column mean
r = 0.71.Nine players arrived with no AGA rating, so their entry rank was an estimate. The rating that came out is the verdict on it - five of the nine landed within one rank of the guess.
| Entered as | W-L | Rating assigned | Rank | vs. guess |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5D | 2-3 | 5.19758 | 5d | spot on |
| 3K | 1-4 | -4.31168 | 4k | -1 ▼ |
| 9K | 4-1 | -8.42900 | 8k | +1 ▲ |
| 8K | 1-4 | -10.04113 | 10k | -2 ▼ |
| 18K | 4-1 | -16.46256 | 16k | +2 ▲ |
| 15K | 1-4 | -17.35330 | 17k | -2 ▼ |
| 19K | 3-2 | -18.81488 | 18k | +1 ▲ |
| 19K | 2-3 | -20.98427 | 20k | -1 ▼ |
| 25K | 0-5 | -27.94980 | 27k | -2 ▼ |